India, in Infographics: Demography
China Recorded Fewer Births In 2025 Than In The Famine Year Of 1961; By 2070, India May Have 690 Million More People
In 1975 China Had 305 Million More People Than India. The UN Projects India’s Lead Widening From 48 Million In 2025 To 690 Million By 2070, When India Would Have 1.69 Times China’s Population.
Choose Both, Births Or Population To See One Measure At A Time. Hover Any Year For Births And Population In Both Countries, The Gap Between Them, And Where Each Number Comes From. Shaded Area: UN Projections.
China Births, 2025
7.92M
Below 1961’s 11.9M; Lowest Since 1949
India Births, 2024
25.7M
2.7× China’s 9.54M That Year
Population Gap, 2070 (UN)
690M
India Ahead; Up From 48M In 2025
China’s Lead, 1975
305M
Its Largest; India Passed China In 2022
The Bottom Line
China’s Births Have Fallen From 18.8 Million In 2016 To 7.92 Million In 2025, While India’s Have Stayed Above 25 Million. The UN Projects The Population Gap Between The Two, 48 Million In India’s Favour In 2025, Widening Every Year To 690 Million By 2070.
What The Data Shows
China’s Births Have Collapsed
China Recorded 7.92 Million Births In 2025, Down From 18.8 Million In 2016 (As Revised After The 2020 Census), The First Year Of The Two-Child Policy. That Is Fewer Than In 1961 (11.9 Million), The Low Point Of The Great Leap Famine, And About A Quarter Of The 29.6 Million Of 1963.
India’s Births Have Held Up
India’s Births Rose Through The 1980s And 1990s And Stayed Near 26.5 Million From 2003 To 2016, Before Easing To About 25.7 Million In 2024. India Has Recorded More Births Than China Every Year Since 1988; In 2024 It Was 2.7 Times China’s Total.
The Population Gap Reverses And Widens
In 1975, China Had 305 Million More People Than India. India Passed China In 2022. On The UN’s Medium Projection, India’s Lead Grows Every Year, From 48 Million In 2025 To 419 Million In 2050 And 690 Million In 2070, When India Would Have 1.69 Times China’s Population.
Both Peak, Forty Years Apart
China’s Population Peaked At 1.43 Billion In 2021; The UN Projects It Falls To 999 Million By 2070. India’s Is Projected To Peak At About 1.70 Billion In The Early 2060s, With Births Falling To 16.5 Million A Year By 2070 Against China’s 5.0 Million.
Read With Care
China Before 2016
The National Bureau Of Statistics Publishes A Birth Rate For Every Year Since 1949; For 1949 To 2015 We Multiply It By Average Population. This Reproduces Every Count NBS Has Published Since 2016 To Within 20,000. Early Figures Rest On Household Registration, And Births In The Famine Years Are Widely Thought To Be Understated: The UN Estimates 16.9 Million For 1961.
India’s Series
India Has No Complete Count Of Births. The Registrar General Estimates Them As The Sample Registration System Birth Rate Times Mid-Year Population; We Apply The Same Method From 1971, Which Matches The Official 2023 Figure Of 25.6 Million. The UN’s Own Estimates Run 5% To 10% Higher And Put India’s Peak At 29.3 Million In 2001. 1987 Is A Near Tie Between The Two Countries On Our Series.
Projections Start From The UN’s Level
UN Projections Begin From The UN’s Own Estimates, Not Official Counts: It Puts India’s 2024 Births At 23.2 Million And Had Projected 8.71 Million For China In 2025, Against An Actual 7.92 Million. That Is Why The Dashed Lines Step At 2025. Population Figures Are UN Mid-Year Estimates; NBS Counts China At 1.405 Billion At The End Of 2025.
Sources & Method
China
Births: NBS Annual Statistical Communiqués, 2016 To 2025 (7.92 Million In 2025). 1949 To 2015: NBS Crude Birth Rate × Average Of Start And End Year Population, From The China Statistical Yearbook, With 2011 To 2019 As Revised After The 2020 Census.
India
Births: Sample Registration System Crude Birth Rate (Office Of The Registrar General, 1971 To 2024) × Mid-Year Population From The National Accounts Series. 2023 Matches The Civil Registration System Report’s 25,618,854; 2024 Is Consistent With CRS 2024. 1950 To 1970: UN Estimates.
Projections
UN World Population Prospects 2024, Medium Variant: Births 2025 To 2070 And Population 1950 To 2070 (Estimates To 2023, Projections After). The Medium Variant Assumes Fertility Stays Low In China And Keeps Falling Slowly In India.
Data: National Bureau Of Statistics Of China · Sample Registration System, Registrar General Of India · UN World Population Prospects 2024 · Our World In Data.
