India, in Infographics: Climate
In El Niño Years, India’s Monsoon Runs Dry
156 Years Of The All-India Monsoon, By The State Of The Pacific. In El Niño Years It Has Averaged Just 91% Of Normal, Against 105% In La Niña Years, And 17 Of India’s 27 Deficient Monsoons Struck During El Niño. But It Is A Tendency, Not A Rule — And 2026, At 87%, Is The Weakest In 11 Years.
Each Bar Is One Year’s All-India Monsoon As % Of Normal (100 = Normal). Hover Any Bar For Its Year, Value And Ocean State; Toggle Above To Isolate El Niño, La Niña Or Neutral Years. Bar Height Is The Monsoon; Colour Is The Ocean State That Season.
The Record
156 Years
All-India Monsoon, 1871 To 2026
El Niño Vs La Niña
91% vs 105%
Average Monsoon, By Ocean State
Droughts Were El Niño
17 Of 27
Deficient Years Since 1871 (Below 90%)
The 2026 Monsoon
87%
Weakest In 11 Years · Driest Since 2015
The Verdict
El Niño Is The Strongest Single Signal In India’s Monsoon: Across 156 Years, El Niño Seasons Have Averaged 91% Of Normal Against 105% In La Niña Years, And 17 Of The 27 Deficient Monsoons Since 1871 Struck During El Niño. But The Seasonal Total Shows No Long-Term Trend, And El Niño Guarantees Nothing In Any Given Year — 1997’s Very Strong El Niño Still Delivered A Normal Monsoon. 2026, At 87%, Is The Weakest In 11 Years, Arriving As El Niño Returned.
The Long Record — A Stable Mean, Wild Swings
A 55-Point Swing, End To End
The Monsoon Ranges From 67% Of Normal In 1877 (The Driest On Record, A Famine Year) To 122% In 1961 (The Wettest). In Any Single Year It Can Land Almost Anywhere Between.
Stable On Average, Violent Year To Year
Across 156 Years The Seasonal All-India Total Shows No Significant Long-Term Trend — The Average Barely Moves. The Story Is Not Decline; It Is Variability. Of 156 Years, 27 Came In Deficient (Below 90%) And 19 In Excess (Above 110%); The Rest Cluster Near Normal.
Droughts Come In Clusters
The Worst Years — 1877, 1899, 1918, 1972, 1987, 2002, 2009, 2015 — Are Not Random. Most Line Up With El Niño, The Pacific Warming That Is The Single Largest Driver Of How India’s Monsoon Behaves.
The El Niño Link
El Niño Years Run Dry
In El Niño Years The Monsoon Has Averaged Just 91% Of Normal; In La Niña Years, 105%; In Neutral Years, 100%. The Gap Is Wider Still In The Reliable Instrumental Era Since 1950 (89% Versus 105%).
Two In Three Droughts
Of India’s 27 Deficient Monsoons Since 1871, 17 Struck During El Niño — Nearly Two In Three. Since 1950, Not One Deficient Monsoon Came In A La Niña Year.
But El Niño Is Not Destiny
1997 Brought One Of The Strongest El Niños On Record, Yet India Got A Normal 102% Monsoon. A Third Of Droughts Came With No El Niño At All. The Indian Ocean Dipole, The Madden-Julian Oscillation And Internal Variability Also Move The Rains. El Niño Loads The Dice; It Does Not Throw Them.
The Recent Decades
2026: The Weakest In 11 Years
At 87% Of Normal, The 2026 Monsoon Is The Driest Since 2015 (86%) — And It Arrived As An El Niño Firmed Up Over The Pacific Through The Season.
Straight After Two Strong Years
It Follows Two Surplus Seasons — 108% In Both 2024 And 2025 — A Reminder Of How Fast The Monsoon Can Turn From One Year To The Next.
The Recent El Niño Signal
Every El Niño Year Of The Last Decade — 2015 (86%), 2023 (94%) And 2026 (87%) — Came In Below Normal, While The La Niña And Neutral Years Mostly Sat At Or Above It. Toggle The Chart Above To See It.
Sources & Method
The Data
Rainfall: All-India Southwest Monsoon (June–September) As % Of The Long Period Average — IITM Pune Homogeneous Series (1871–1988) Spliced With IMD Operational Figures (1989–2026). Because The Two Records Normalise Against Slightly Different Baselines, There Is A Minor (~1–2%) Inconsistency At The Seam, Flagged So It Is Never Read As A Climate Signal. 2026 Figures Are Provisional (IMD End-Of-Season).
The ENSO Classification
Each Season Is Labelled El Niño, La Niña Or Neutral By Its State During June–September: NOAA’s Oceanic Niño Index For 1950–2026 (Authoritative) And Documented Reconstructions Before 1950 (Less Certain). Correlation Is Not Causation: El Niño Is The Largest Single Driver Of Monsoon Variability, But Not The Only One, And It Does Not Determine Any Single Year.
Deficient = Below 90% Of LPA; Excess = Above 110%. Averages Are Simple Means Over The Years In Each ENSO Category. Retrieved Late September 2026.
